Global demography historical lessons - by Boris Sedunov

["Laboratorio Eudemonia" <528390@hyperlinker.com>]

Ricevo dal prof. Boris Sedunov dell'Università di Mosca e membro dell'EarthNet Institute il seguente articolo di cui pubblico qui solo l'introduzione per la presenza di formule e tabelle che nel formato .txt andrebbero perse. L'edizione completa del lavoro in formato .PDF è disponibile all'indirizzo:

http://www.hyperlinker.com/spg/bs1.pdf

Vive cordialità,

Danilo D'Antonio


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GLOBAL DEMOGRAPHY HISTORICAL LESSONS
The second edition

Boris Sedunov

	Introduction

This article was published at the www.eni.edu site in 1998. I am using the possibility to express my gratitude to Dr. George Wolford, the EarthNet Institute president for its publication. The last two years could not diminish noticeably the threat of the Earth overpopulation. Just open the http://www.hyperlinker.com/spg/pop.htm site and hear the population bomb alarm clock ticking. Every second the limited Global natural resource is cut to give a share for the three new  human beings, who possess all rights to require their part of a common pie. This irresponsible behavior of the current Humankind leaves no chances for future generations to survive on the deserted planet.

Today every educated person on Earth is worrying about ecological problem. Many people connect it with bad technologies, lack of culture, egoistic behavior of businesses and consumers. Surely, all these factors are responsible for the ecology. But the real mechanism of the ecology deterioration is unseen for the public opinion. And this mechanism is - the global population explosion. However, the demography is neglected by mass media because many nations, religion group, countries, families egoistically think: "We are not so multiple, as compared to our competitors". 

Eight years have passed after the famous book  "Beyond the limits. Confronting global collapse. Envisioning a sustainable future" of Donella H. Meadows, Dennis L. Meadows and Jorgen Randers was published. The book once more attracted the Humankind's attention to the problem of the global demography explosion and the Earth natural resources exhaustion. But last eight years gave another 13% addition to the global population, that is around 700 million extra people. The importance of the problem is growing with every year, but the public attention to demography is not serious enough as compared to the danger of the irreversible environmental catastrophe.

Internet shows a remarkable illustration of the quite opposite approaches to the trends in the human future - the bet of the famous scientists from Stanford's Department of Biological Sciences, ecologist Paul R. Ehrlich and climatologist Stephen H. Schneider, against Julian Simon, a professor of business administration at the University of Maryland, on 15 current trends whose direction is not positive now, that each will get worse during ten years in future. It is interesting to note, that professor Simon, like Karl Marx in his critics of the Malthus theory, supposes an infinite growth in the Earth resources and productivity. 

The main goal of this publication is to give professional and future demographers and ecologists a new tool and new units of measure to estimate mutual influence of the population growth on the cultural, technological and ecological changes. This tool, like a telescope, helps to interpret the Humankind history on the basis of demographic data. Looking forward, this tool helps to make predictions of future changes in our civilization. The key point of the suggested theory is: anytime, when the global population growth tends to infinity, the Humankind civilization suffers an abrupt change in all basic aspects.

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