Europe Missile Defense



Seguire quanto accade nella realizzazione della difesa antimissile è la naturale conseguenza delle inchieste sui territori concepite per ricostruire una mappa aggiornata delle basi militari. Sapevamo della trasformazione e del riposizionamento strategico USA in Europa. Sapevamo che Bulgaria e Romania sarebbero divenute la nuova frontiera orientale della NATO e poi dell'Europa. Sapevamo che la Francia sebbene restia ai propositi di difesa antimissile americano, nel 2003 ha voltato pagina. Buona parte dei sistemi (satelliti, missili tattici, ecc) di quella architettura sono a buon punto. Certo la Francia, in prima linea nei progetti antimissili NATO, continua a pensare che i suoi risultati potrebbero plasmare un sistema completamento europeo.

Europe

In their thinking about missile defense, Europe and the United States, broadly speaking, have come from opposite sides of the spectrum. Defense against aircraft was a major NATO-European Cold War preoccupation leading to the development of an air defense belt across the NATO central front. In the United States, the debate has historically focused on defense against intercontinental ballistic missiles especially after President Reagan’s March 23, 1983 speech calling for a concerted effort to develop a missile defense. The discussion of missile defense in Europe has evolved from defense against aircraft to defending also against short-range missiles (extended air defense). In the United States, faced with the growing threat of missiles armed with weapons of mass destruction (WMD), the debate has increasingly emphasized defense against mis¬siles of varying ranges. The effect of 9/11 was to bring into the U.S. discussion a greater appreciation of the destruction that could be wrought by an aircraft used as a weapon. In Europe the implications of 9/11 include a greater recognition of vul¬nerability from terrorist action. European support – in so far as it exists – for the development of missile defense systems represents a logical evolution from air defense. In the United States the effect of 9/11 was to reinforce the need for defense against a broad range of threats. The extent to which there will be a narrowing of the transatlantic gap in this spectrum leading to consensus strong enough to support transatlantic missile defense remains to be seen. To the extent that Europeans have considered missile defense, the emphasis has been on TMD systems. This is the focus of NATO efforts based on the TMD feasibility studies approved by the Alliance in October 1999. The need for a unified, in¬teroperable NATO-wide TMD architecture has become more urgent in light of coalition operations and the multiplicity of tasks for missile defense. Such systems would form the terminal defense against shorter-range missiles and could become part of a broader architecture providing for a layered missile defense, thus creating the basis for a transatlantic division of labor or at least greater specialization of effort between NATO Europe and the United States in defense against ballistic missiles. In addition to ongoing work on programs such as the Medium Extended Air Defense System (MEADS),(14) the United States has also moved forward with plans for a larger regional anti-missile architecture.

14The project, pursued trilaterally by the United States, Germany, and Italy, is designed to produce a tactical, mobile terminal-phase theater missile defense complement for deployed American and European troops. The United States and Italy signed the MEADS Design and Development Memorandum of Understanding in September 2004, allowing the two countries to proceed with the project on a “limited basis.” In May 2005, the Bundestag approved entry into the design and development phase of MEADS, allowing Germany to become an official signatory. See “Germany Approves Involvement in MEADS Missile,” Defense Industry Daily, May 2, 2005.
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This includes agreements to upgrade two crucial radar bases, the Fylingdales Royal Air Base in northern England and the Thule facility (expected to be finished by 2007) on the Danish autonomous colony of Greenland – for missile defense duties, as well as institutionalizing an ongoing ABM dialogue with both Copenhagen and London. The upgrades will give the radars the capacity to track and establish the flight trajectories of the missiles and their payloads, making the two radars more capable of guiding U.S. missiles to intercept
ballistic missiles launched from the Middle East.(15)
U.S. officials state that the ABM dialogue does not currently include discussions on deployment of interceptors in either the United Kingdom or Greenland. A substantial diplomatic campaign launched by the White House beginning in mid-2002 also elicited positive preliminary responses from a number of Eastern European countries – including Hungary, Poland, and the Czech Republic – on a broad range of possible anti-missile roles, ranging from early warning to the basing of terminal-phase defenses. In 2004 and 2005, the United States held exploratory discussions with these three nations on the possibility of basing a third GMD in¬terceptor site (beyond those in Alaska and California) on one of their territories. No decision has yet been taken. However, such a site could defend much of Europe while also supplementing the capability to defend the United States. U.S. officials indicate that such discussions underscore America’s commitment to protecting U.S. allies and deployed forces.(16)

15 Agreements on these upgrades were formalized with Britain and Denmark in February 2003 and August 2004, respectively. For more information, see Mike Rance, “U.K.-U.S. Missile Defense: Would British Accept Missile Emplacements?,” DefenseNews.com, May 15, 2005, <http://www.defensenews.com/story.php?F=854800&C=commentary>; Matthew Lee, “US, Denmark, Greenland Sign Agreement to Modernize US Base,” Agence France Presse, August 6, 2004; Wade Boese, “Greenland Radar Cleared for U.S. Missile Defense,” Arms Control Today, July/August 2004, <http://www.armscontrol.org/act/2004_07-08/GreenlandRadar.asp>; and Baker Spring, Executive Memorandum: Congress Should Commend Britain on Missile Defense Radar Upgrade, The Heritage Foundation, February 21, 2003, <http://www.heritage.org/Research/NationalSecurity/em861.cfm>. 16 “Iran Minister Tells Hungary USA ‘Fanning Flames’ of Iranian Nuclear ‘Threat’,” BBC Monitoring International Reports, February 16, 2005; “Opposition Head Demands Briefing on Hungary – USA Talks on Missile Network,” BBC Monitoring International Reports, January 12, 2005; see also Wade Bose, “U.S. Eyes Missile Defense Site in Europe,” Arms Control Today, July/August 2004, <http://www.armscontrol.org/act/2004_07-08/MDSite.asp>.

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This focus has been matched within NATO. The November 2002 NATO Prague Summit produced an unprecedented consensus regarding the growing ballistic missile threat confronting Alliance members. The final communiqué emphasized that NATO had reached an Alliance-wide commitment to examine “options for addressing the increasing missile threat to Alli¬ance territory, forces and population centers.”(17) Following up on this commitment, in January 2004 NATO commissioned a study to explore the feasibility of a strategic missile defense system that would protect the alliance from a ballistic missile attack. The classified report was completed in early July 2005, and it reportedly addressed a variety of issues, including the location of interceptor sites and sensors, management of debris (from intercepts of incoming missiles), the rules of engagement for an allied ballistic missile system, the sensors needed for an early warning system, cost estimates, and a threat analysis.(18) This report will form an input into a final report from NATO’s Conference of National Armaments Directors, which will serve as the basis for all future consultations on this system. This latter report is expected in 2006.(19) In addition, NATO is moving ahead with the development of a deployable Alliance Theater Missile Defense System that would be used to protect NATO troops during operations and to defend territory/troops from short- and medium-range missile threats in certain regional settings.(20) In July 2005, NATO authorized $480 million for this purpose, and the final system will incorporate member countries’ TMD components in an overall system that will target a missile in its boost, midcourse and terminal phases.(21) For instance, for the boost phase, NATO expects to employ armed unmanned aerial vehicles or, if available, airborne lasers, and for the midcourse phase, it may employ the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system. For the terminal phase, NATO may utilize MEADS or the PAC-3 system, or perhaps the Franco-Italian Surface Air Moyenne Portée/Terre system. A program management organization has even been established to develop management and technical capacities so that the Alliance TMD System can establish an initial operating capability by 2010.(22)

17 Prague Summit Declaration, Prague, Czech Republic, November 21, 2002.
18 “Industry Study Weighs Feasibility of NATO Strategic Missile Defense,” Inside Missile Defense, July 20, 2005.
19 Ibid.
20 NATO Briefing, “Countering Weapons of Mass Destruction,” March 2005, p3, <http://www.nato.int/docu/briefing/wmd-e.pdf>. 21“NATO Releases First Batch of Theater Missile Defense Funds,” Inside Missile Defense, July 20, 2005.
22 Ibid.