(The Guardian) Nowhere near the brink

[Paola Lucchesi <paola.lucchesi@mail.inet.it>]

http://www.guardian.co.uk/comment/story/0,3604,458971,00.html

Nowhere near the brink

Ignore the hysteria. Macedonia is not about to spark a Balkan
conflagration

Jonathan Steele
Monday March 19, 2001
The Guardian

If war is, as Clausewitz said, the continuation of politics by other
means, then a war correspondent is a political reporter in another
context. The old adage needs to be remembered with special urgency when
fighting breaks out in the Balkans. Precisely because they are part of
Europe, the temptation for non-Balkan Europeans in the more prosperous
part of the continent to demonise their southern neighbours seems to be
huge.
    The crisis in Macedonia is the latest case. Too many politicians,
analysts and journalists are already using the apocalyptic language of
"conflagration", "rivers of blood", and "regional war" or commenting, as
the Sunday Telegraph did yesterday, "After Bosnia, after Kosovo, one
would have thought the people of the Balkans had had enough of killing
each other."
    The Balkans have certainly had a miserable decade with an appalling
record of massacre and ethnic cleansing. But the latest events in
Macedonia provide no reason to abandon normal political analysis in
favour of a gloomy determinism which assumes that every Balkan conflict
is about ethnicity, and that once tapped lightly on the shoulder, the
ethnic genie will always race off to mass murder. The Sunday Telegraph
should note there have only been two deaths in the "conflagration"
around Tetovo. An army pilot died when a helicopter hit a power line. An
Albanian civilian was killed by a stray bullet.
    More significantly, the clashes are not just a dispute between
Albanians and Macedonians. They are also a dispute among Albanians. The
established Albanian politicians of Macedonia, as well as those of
Kosovo and Albania itself, have all condemned the gunmen. The Macedonian
government, a coalition of Macedonian and Albanian parties, has not
fallen. Indeed, apart from four Albanian and two Macedonian MPs, the
entire parliament condemned the "armed groups of extremists" yesterday
and called for foreign military help. The motion was supported not only
by the Albanian party in government but also by the Albanian opposition
Party of Democratic Prosperity.
    So the gunmen operating in the hills above Tetovo represent a
minority. That said, it does not follow that a large number of
Macedonia's Albanians do not support their goals, as opposed to their
violent methods. Before and since independence in 1991 Albanians have
regularly criticised the lack of language rights for their community and
discrimination in public service jobs. There have been frequent
outbursts of nationalism with demands for the right to fly the Albanian
flag. Arben Xhaferi, now the leading Albanian moderate in Macedonia, is
a jail veteran from flag protests going back as far as 1968.
    Calls for federalisation within Macedonia, which the gunmen seem to
be making, have long been canvassed by some Albanians though always
rejected by Macedonian politicians on the grounds they would be the
first step to secession.
    If the gunmen are to remain isolated, a heavy responsibility now
rests on the local politicians of both sides as well as, to a lesser
extent, on western governments. The Albanian leaders in Macedonia and in
Kosovo must go beyond their public condemnations of the gunmen and start
serious discussions with them and their leaders for a ceasefire. The
gunmen have made a point but they must now leave room for political
talks by elected leaders to go forward.
    By the same token, the Macedonian military and police must avoid any
escalation. It is clear that Nato is not going to get involved with
troops, beyond a belated tightening up of security on the border between
Kosovo and Macedonia. It is also apparent that the Macedonian security
forces do not have the men, the equipment, or the sophisticated training
to take the gunmen on by themselves. Blasting mortar rounds into
forested hillsides serves little purpose other than as a temporary,
though spurious, morale-booster for Macedonia's Slav majority. But it
carries the risk of civilian casualties which would only serve to
radicalise a wider segment of the Albanian population. The Macedonian
military must avoid the use of excessive force which the Serbs wielded
in Kosovo in 1998, turning the whole Albanian community against them.
    If a ceasefire can be achieved quickly, then all sides must be ready
for wide-ranging talks and reasonable concessions. A decade after its
hasty and unprepared independence, Macedonia needs to take a deep breath
and work out a new dispensation. Albanian leaders must make an
unequivocal declaration that they do not want to split the state. They
must also renounce federalisation, at least for a 10-year period, in
return for progress in opening public service jobs to Albanians. The
constitution needs to enshrine multiracialism instead of its current
assumption of Slav supremacy. Albanian must be recognised as an official
language for parliament, the courts and public service. A minority as
large as a third of the population, as the Albanians are thought to be,
deserve no less. With common sense in Macedonia, and less hysteria
outside it, solutions can be found.

jonathan.steele@guardian.co.uk

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