Re: Con moderazione...

["glr" <glr_y@iol.it>]

*  On:           16 Oct 00,    at 9:03
*  Subject:   Re: Con moderazione...
*  Paola Lucchesi <pck-yugoslavia@peacelink.it>   wrote:


> Questo sicuramente fara' felice Andrea piu' di quelli di Filipovic. E
> sicuramente nei telegiornali della sera non lo troverete. 

Far felice Andrea è il meno, il problema è raggiungere la platea dei TG. Per 
far ciò servono a poco, in lista, le discussioni a due, e servono di più le 
notizie e soprattutto il riscontro delle fonti e la denuncia dei falsi. La platea 
televisiva non la raggiungiamo direttamente con la lista, ma con il bagaglio di 
informazioni che siamo in grado di raccogliere e vagliare per poi diffondere 
ad personam nella nostra vita quotidiana, che non si esaurisce davanti al 
monitor. 

Vi allego 2 articoli. 

yure

------ 

1. IL NUOVO REGIME IN JUGOSLAVIA APRE LE PORTE ALLE 
OPPORTUNITA' D'AFFARI

2. WORLD BANK BACKS EARLY INVOLVEMENT WITH YUGOSLAVIA.

===============================================


IL NUOVO REGIME IN JUGOSLAVIA APRE LE PORTE ALLE
OPPORTUNITA' D'AFFARI 

di Monica Larner - ("Italy Daily", supplemento dell'edizione
italiana dell''"International Herald Tribune" del 10 ottobre 2000)

[Le opportunita' d'affari per le aziende italiane in Jugoslavia,
di cui parla l'articolo qui sotto, non sono poi cosi' nuove. Tra i
nomi di grandi aziende che vi compaiono, Fiat, ENEL, Telecom e
Impregilo avevano gia' effettuato grandi investimenti, o trattato
eventuali affari, con il regime di Milosevic. Ora hanno buone
prospettive di raccogliere i frutti di tali loro contatti passati]

Dopo la rivoluzione, arriva la ricostruzione - con tutto il suo
strascico di opportunita' d'affari. [...] Per l'Italia - il
secondo maggiore partner commerciale della Jugoslavia dopo la
Germania - la prossimita' geografica e i legami commerciali
storici potrebbero costituire un trampolino rispetto alla
concorrenza. Se gli eventi politici procederanno in Jugoslavia in
maniera liscia, il futuro del paese promette di essere ricco di
provatizzazioni, con l'apertura delle barriere commerciali e la
stabilizzazione della valuta. Fino a quando l'aspra situazione
politica nel paese non si raffreddera', molti membri della
comunita' d'affari europea adotteranno un approccio impostato all'
"aspettiamo e vediamo", ma le prospettive sembrano buone. "Dovra'
passare molta acqua sotto i ponti prima di sapere cosa accadra'",
ha affermato il presidente dell'ICE, Fabrizio Onida in
un'intervista a "Italy Daily". "C'e' tuttavia ottimismo". Egli ha
aggiunto che le esportazioni italiane di prodotti come scarpe,
prodotti tessili e generi alimentari saranno le prime a sfruttare
l'occasione. "Gli investitori italiani in genere sono un po' piu'
lenti degli altri", ha affermato. "Ma l'avvio di privatizzazioni
in Jugoslavia potrebbe accendere la scintilla dell'interesse".

Alcune delle piu' note aziende italiane hanno gia' una presenza in
Jugoslavia, come la Fiat, la Iveco, l'Alitalia, la Telecom Italia,
Diesel e Ferrero. Il Prodotto Interno Lordo della Jugoslavia e'
stato stimato come pari a 22 trilioni di lire dopo la guerra nel
1999, con una diminuzione del 22% rispetto all'anno precedente.
L'ICE prevede che nel 2000 il PIL raggiungera' 26 trilioni di
lire. Nel 1997 la Telecom Italia aveva comprato una quota del 29%
- che ora corrisponde a un valore di 548 miliardi di lire - della
Telecom Serbia. A causa della guerra in Kosovo, il gigante
italiano delle telecomunicazioni ha perso circa un quarto del
valore del suo investimento iniziale, ma ora si trova di fronte a
un mercato ad alta crescita, che sicuramente continuera' a salire.
La Telecom Italia potrebbe infine vedere il suo investimento
iniziale, che gli esperti a suo tempo avevano definito "rischioso,
ma coraggioso", fruttare ricchi rendimenti. La Jugoslavia ha 2,2
milioni di clienti di linee telefoniche fisse e solo 350.000
clienti che utilizzano telefonia mobile, cifre che rendono molto
forte il potenziale di nuovi abbonamenti. Come richiede la legge,
il 51% delle quote della Telecom Serbia e' posseduto dal governo
jugoslavo. [...]

Le privatizzazioni potrebbero spalancare la Jugoslavia agli
investimenti esteri. Molti settori, ivi inclusi i servizi pubblici
per l'energia, le infrastrutture e la gestione degli aeroporti,
potrebbero presto vedere licenziamenti di dipendenti ed essere
ristrutturati per dare spazio ai nuovi capitali provenienti
dall'estero. Per esempio, l'ENEL, l'ente statale per l'energia
elettrica, potrebbe un giorno prendere in considerazione di
entrare in un mercato jugoslavo dell'energia privatizzato, ha
detto Onida. La societa' edile Impregilo di Milano potrebbe
concorrere per contratti per la ricostruzione delle strade, dei
ponti e delle gallerie danneggiati dalla guerra.

Aldo Fumagalli, presidente e amministratore delegato della Sol,
una societa' con sede a Monza che confeziona e distribuisce gas
come l'ossigeno, l'azoto e l'argon, afferma di essere ottimista
sul futuro della sua azienda in Jugoslavia. Con vendite per 400
miliardi di lire e 1.050 dipendenti in tutto il mondo, la Sol e'
gia' attiva nella penisola balcanica, ivi incluso il Kosovo. La
Sol fornisce i gas necessari per gli ospedali, le acciaierie, i
cantieri navali e altri settori. Due anni fa, il signor Fumagalli
ha creato una rete di distribuzione in tutta la Jugoslavia,
sfruttando la sua rete integrata gia' operativa nei paesi
confinanti, con valute e relazioni commerciali piu' solide. Cosi'
facendo, la sua azienda e' stata tra le altre cose in grado di
aggirare le limitazioni imposte dall'embargo. [...]

(Fonte: http://www.ecn.org/est/balcani )

===============================================

After the Rain - How the West Lost the East -
http://www.geocities.com/vaksam/after.html

Courtesy Bill

World Bank Development News Thursday, October 12, 2000


WORLD BANK BACKS EARLY INVOLVEMENT WITH YUGOSLAVIA.

The World Bank said yesterday it supports early involvement with
the new Yugoslavian government, including setting up donor trusts
to help the fledgling democracy ahead of its becoming a member of
the World Bank, reports Reuters. The World Bank board of directors
"expressed their support for an early involvement of the World
Bank in supporting the positive response of the international
community" to the recent changes in Yugoslavia, the Bank said in a
statement.

"As a first step, once the new government has expressed its
interest, the Bank would initiate preparations for Yugoslavia's
membership by assessing the economic situation and exploring with
the government options for the settlement of (arrears)," the Bank
added in its statement.  Yugoslavia's arrears at the World Bank
amount to $1.7 billion and total $128 million at the IMF.  The
World Bank said those arrears would have to be cleared and the
nation would have to rejoin the IMF before it could rejoin the
Bank. Agence France-Presse and the Wall Street Journal also
report.

Yugoslavia, led by strongman President Slobodan Milosevic, was cut
off by the IMF in 1992 and the World Bank in 1993 for its role in
a series of Balkan wars and for refusing to pay money it owed on
loans, Reuters notes. While paying arrears of more than $1.8
billion might seem insurmountable to a cash-starved nation, the
World Bank and the IMF have in the past welcomed nations back as
members by providing a fresh loan to help pay arrears.

In its statement, the Bank gave no estimate of how long it might
take to negotiate new membership for Yugoslavia, except that it
"will likely take some time."

Initially, the Bank plans to offer analytical and advisory support
in cooperation with the EU, the IMF and others, while it helps
coordinate assistance and works on a medium-term reform plan. 
Once arrears were cleared and membership was in place, the Bank
said it could provide new loans to help the country work toward a
lasting economic recovery after more than a decade of strife, NATO
bombings last year and sanctions. "The World Bank's possible role
in (Yugoslavia) is based on the assumption that further internal
politi cal consolidation is quickly achieved ...  and that this
leads to the removal of international sanctions," the Bank said.

A fresh injection of cash from the two international lenders after
years of isolation could prove invaluable in helping rebuild the
country's battered economy, which contracted by more than 20
percent last year. Inflation in Yugoslavia topped 50 percent this
year and unemployment is close to 30 percent. With a plunging
currency, sky-high inflation and a crumbling infrastructure,
Yugoslavia would be a prime contender to benefit from help by the
IMF and the World Bank, says the story.  The two bodies not only
dispense loans, but also offer technical advice and pointers on
building solid foundations to make economies attractive to outside
investors.

The news comes as the New York Times (p.  A1) reports that US
President Bill Clinton will announce today that he is lifting many
of the trade and economic sanctions against Yugoslavia.  Citing
senior administration officials as their source, the NYT said
Clinton will immediately end the ban on American flights and an
oil embargo against Yugoslavia. Additional sanctions will be
lifted over the next several weeks.  But administration officials
said they would retain the so-called "outer wall" of sanctions
that prevent Yugoslavia from receiving aid from the IMF and the
World Bank, as well as some which prevent Milosevic and his
cronies from sending assets overseas.

Meanwhile, reports the Financial Times (p.2), Yugoslavia is aiming
to raise up to $500 million from international donors to help
finance imports of fuel and other essentials over the difficult
winter months, according to Miroljub Labus, head of the interim
federal government.  But more important than the final sum is the
speed with which aid can be delivered, he said.

Speaking a day after meeting French Foreign Minister Hubert
Védrine and moments before welcoming Bodo Hombach, head of the
Southeast Europe Stability Pact, Labus said, "It is important that
this message is heard everywhere.  Much better we have $100
million right now than $500 million in a year's time." It was
vital that links were created quickly, he said, and that people
saw the benefits [of a democratic regime].

German officials last night suggested that the EU could agree
immediate help worth some $100 million at the EU leaders summit in
Biarritz this weekend.

Labus, who is expected to remain head of the government if a
multi-party team is established, said the economy would be his
priority.  He wants to liberalize and create a market economy open
to foreign aid, loans and investment, and would not be dogmatic.

The news comes as AFP reports that the UN war crimes tribunal for
the former Yugoslavia said yesterday it would give Yugoslovia's
new leadership some time to consolidate democracy-but still
expected Belgrade to eventually hand over Milosevic for trial.  "I
think we have to be prepared to give Kostunica time provided that
in the end of the day all the indictees are going to be
surrendered to this tribunal," said Graham Blewitt, deputy
prosecutor of Hague-based International Criminal Tribunal for the
Former Yugoslavia (ICTY).

Further, a New York Times editorial (p.  A30) notes Yugoslavia's
economy is now more than a decade behind the rest of Central and
Eastern Europe in making the transition to market capitalism. 
Most of the privatizations carried out in the Milosevic era
consisted of handouts to political supporters.  Long before tough
investment sanctions were imposed last year, foreign businesses
were avoiding Yugoslavia, put off by its politicized courts, poor
fiscal management and rusting industries. Under the best of
circumstances, Yugoslavia will have a hard time catching up with
those countries that have gone through a decade of generally
successful reforms, like Poland and the Baltic states.  At worst
Yugoslavia's economy could follow Russia's path to corruption and
decline.

To avoid that, the editorial says, Kostunica will have to temper
his Serbian nationalism with pragmatism and welcome substantial
foreign investment. Remaining state-controlled businesses should
be rapidly sold off. Milosevic-era privatizations should be
investigated and corrupt deals renegotiated.  The United States
can help Kostunica by following Europe's lead and lifting most of
the economic sanctions imposed during the Milosevic years, a step
President Clinton plans to take today. Substantial emergency
assistance will also be needed this winter. Washington should be
generous, the editorial concludes.

Commenting in the FT (p.17), Wolfgang Petritsch, high
representative of the Western nations in Bosnia and Herzegovina,
writes that international aid should not go to new Yugoslavian
President Vojislav Kostunica unless he extradites suspected
Bosnian Serb criminals and gives full recognition and cooperation
to the multi-ethnic Bosnian state.

Also commenting, Sheryle Bagwell writes in the Australian
Financial Review that the West is likely to give Kostunica some
breathing space to demonstrate his democratic credentials.

Meanwhile, EBRD Chief Economist Willem Buiter writes in the
Guardian that foreign financial support will depend heavily on
direct investment with significant support needed from
international financial institutions such as the World Bank, the
IMF and the EBRD.  The EBRD has been active in all other countries
of southeastern Europe.  The expertise gained in other post-war
arenas such as Bosnia and Herzegovina can be useful in Yugoslavia.
 It is a public institution using private sector projects as its
principal instrument.  It has also played an important role in the
funding of public infrastructure.  Basic infrastructure will have
to be initially funded with sovereign guarantees and blending
multilateral and bilateral concessionary finance.  However,
ultimately some sectors will also have to be financed with private
funding and participation.

===============================================

---

Bollettino di controinformazione del
Coordinamento Nazionale "La Jugoslavia Vivra'"

> http://digilander.iol.it/lajugoslaviavivra

I documenti distribuiti non rispecchiano necessariamente le
opinioni delle realta' che compongono il Coordinamento, ma vengono
fatti circolare per il loro contenuto informativo al solo scopo di
segnalazione e commento ("for fair use only")

Per contributi e segnalazioni: jugocoord@libero.it


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