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Fw: Rumsfeld 'Looks Around The Globe' For Next War - Korea]
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- Subject: Fw: Rumsfeld 'Looks Around The Globe' For Next War - Korea]
- From: "Nello Margiotta" <animarg@tin.it>
- Date: Thu, 20 Mar 2003 15:19:29 +0100
Subject: Rumsfeld 'Looks Around The Globe' For Next War - Korea
Date: 19 Mar 2003 18:19:38 -0800
http://www.forbes.com/home_asia/newswire/2003/03/19/rtr912298.html
Forbes
Reuters
March 19, 2003
With Iraq in cross hairs, US also watches N. Korea
By Will Dunham
-"We are always vigilant," said a U.S. defense
official, speaking on condition of anonymity.
The official told Reuters the Defense Department
recognizes the risk and is "seeking to mitigate it by
deploying additional forces to the western Pacific to
bolster our defensive posture as a deterrent." These
additional forces include two dozen long-range Air
Force B-52 and B-1 bombers sent this month to the
island of Guam in the western Pacific.
-The United States also sent radar-evading F-117A
stealth fighters to Kunsan Air Base in South Korea for
use in the annual joint U.S.-South Korea "Foal Eagle"
field exercise due to end on April 2. In addition, the
Pentagon has positioned the aircraft carrier USS Carl
Vinson in the Western Pacific.
-"It seems to me that it's appropriate for the United
States to look around the globe and say, 'Where might
someone think of taking advantage of that situation
with respect to Iraq?"' Rumsfeld said.
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The United States is keeping a
close watch on North Korea to make sure it does not
try to exploit the military focus on Iraq with
opportunistic and provocative actions, the Pentagon
said Wednesday.
With U.S. forces massed for a possible war with Iraq,
American officials have worried about a simultaneous
crisis erupting with North Korea as it presses its
nuclear ambitions.
"We are always vigilant," said a U.S. defense
official, speaking on condition of anonymity.
The official told Reuters the Defense Department
recognizes the risk and is "seeking to mitigate it by
deploying additional forces to the western Pacific to
bolster our defensive posture as a deterrent." These
additional forces include two dozen long-range Air
Force B-52 and B-1 bombers sent this month to the
island of Guam in the western Pacific.
"This is more driven by events in Iraq than it is by
events in Pyongyang," the official said. "It's not a
response to the nuclear situation. It's not meant to
prepare any sort of pre-emptive strike. It's just
simply there to prevent potential adversaries from
taking advantage of the timing."
The United States also sent radar-evading F-117A
stealth fighters to Kunsan Air Base in South Korea for
use in the annual joint U.S.-South Korea "Foal Eagle"
field exercise due to end on April 2. In addition, the
Pentagon has positioned the aircraft carrier USS Carl
Vinson in the Western Pacific.
"There's a fine line we have to walk between, on the
one hand, not wanting to do anything escalatory --
escalate a diplomatic impasse over the nuclear issue
into a military crisis -- and, on the other hand, not
being deterred from doing our normal pattern of
exercises and training," the official said.
Tensions have been high on the Korean peninsula since
October, when U.S. officials said North Korea admitted
to a secret nuclear weapons program. The standoff has
escalated as North Korea test-fired missiles and
intercepted a U.S. reconnaissance aircraft patrolling
international airspace.
Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld said on March 5
there is nothing "aggressive or threatening or
hostile" in the U.S. actions. "It seems to me that
it's appropriate for the United States to look around
the globe and say, 'Where might someone think of
taking advantage of that situation with respect to
Iraq?"' Rumsfeld said.
Rumsfeld has said while the United States wants to
resolve the North Korea situation through diplomacy,
it is capable of waging and winning two major regional
wars at the same time.
The Pentagon has not detected any indication of shifts
in North Korea's conventional force posture to suggest
potential threatening moves to coincide with
hostilities in Iraq.
'RATCHETING UP THE PRESSURE'
Eric Heginbotham, an expert on the Korean peninsula at
the Council on Foreign Relations think tank, said the
North Koreans are "insecure about the possibility of
the U.S going after them next" after Iraq. He said it
is extremely hard to predict what actions North Korea
might take in the current environment.
"I see a pretty clear pattern of ratcheting up the
pressure one step at a time. But they've been pretty
hesitant to take measures that take it past the point
of absolutely no return," Heginbotham said.
"I think they'll do something to get attention," he
added, perhaps testing North Korea's No-dong or
Taepo-dong missiles.
The No-dong is thought to have a range of about 800
miles , the Taepo-dong-1 a range of up to 1,370 miles
and the Taepo-dong-2 a range of up to 3,700 miles ,
according to analysts.
Short of an invasion of South Korea, Heginbotham said
the most escalatory act North Korea could commit would
be to reprocess nuclear fuel rods to make
weapons-grade plutonium for nuclear weapons. "That
forces a decision on us, which we of course have been
trying to avoid. And I think there's no really much
consensus on what we do next," Heginbotham said.
The U.S. government estimates that North Korea already
may possess one or two nuclear bombs, and could make
six or eight more if reprocessing takes place.
Rumsfeld has said North Korea might sell those to
enemies of America.
Baker Spring, a defense analyst at the Heritage
Foundation, said he viewed it as unlikely but not
impossible that the North Koreans would provoke a
confrontation with the United States.
"Let's take the most obvious and broadest example --
to actually launch a military incursion into South
Korea. I have no doubt that even under today's
circumstances that the United States along with South
Korea would defeat and utterly destroy the North
Korean army," Spring said.
"I don't know how long it would take under these
circumstances. But if that were to happen, I have very
little doubt that in the end, it would spell the
demise altogether of the North Korean regime and
perhaps North Korea."