I: Hardening of Cuba policy is expected from Bush

["Nello Margiotta" <animarg@tin.it>]

Hardening of Cuba policy is expected from Bush

  More influence by Miami exiles predicted

  BY CAROL ROSENBERG
  crosenberg@herald.com

Cuba watchers are predicting fewer cultural exchanges, a hardening of U.S.
policy and increased direct support for dissidents on the island as part of
a Bush administration foreign policy toward Fidel Castro's government.

``Nobody's saying that if we have a Republican administration in Washington,
the Marines are going to be storming the ports of Cuba tomorrow,'' said
Republican Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, buoyant about the possibility of a
toughening in U.S.-Cuba policy.

But she did forecast tougher talk, tougher restrictions on American business
  travel and fewer contacts between Americans and nondissident Cubans to
turn
  back the tide of what she called ``a trickling, weakening of the U.S.
embargo day-by-day during the Clinton administration.''

  Both supporters and opponents predict that Rep. Lincoln Diaz-Balart, the
South Florida Republican, will have some influence on the administration
Cuba policy.

In April, he met for more than an hour in his congressional office with
Condoleezza Rice, Bush's nominee to become national security advisor.

According to Republican sources, he later submitted a memo to the Bush
campaign that articulated the three Cuba pillars of a future Bush
administration: no ties without free elections, freedom for political
prisoners and the free expression of ideas.

Clinton policy had tentatively promoted an increased opening toward Cuba --
mostly in the form of people-to-people contacts -- as a strategy for
toppling Castro communism.

Now some Cuba experts are predicting a reexamination of those portions of
the Helms-Burton Law that presidents can waive, while others anticipate a
greater belligerence because of the influence of the Miami exile community
within the GOP.

A first Helms-Burton test could come as soon as April when the White House
must decide whether to lift a moratorium on Title III of the legislation,
which allows exiles to sue in U.S. courts any business now operating in Cuba
on state-confiscated property.

President Clinton signed the bill after the February 1996 ambush by Cuban
MiGs of two Brothers to the Rescue planes that killed four South Floridians.

The Democratic administration, however, always considered the provisions of
Title III a potential trap that would create problems with U.S. trade
partners because they are in direct conflict with the free-trade provisions
of the World Trade Organization, the body that governs international
commerce.

As a result, Clinton repeatedly waived the lawsuit portion and avoided full
implementation of another section, Title IV, that penalizes foreign firms
that do business with Cuba by denying U.S. visas to their executives.

Cuban American National Foundation Executive Vice President Dennis Hays said
he expects a Bush administration to highlight the presence of dissident
groups, independent journalists and political prisoners on the island.

``I do think there is going to be movement to try to foster democracy more,
and change,'' said Hays, who ran the State Department's Cuba desk in the mid
'90s.

An example: The U.S. spent $10 million promoting democracy in Serbia this
year, he said, compared to $2 million to U.S.-based groups that forge ties
with dissidents and Castro opponents on the island.

Watch that sum rise, Hays predicts, and watch for an interpretation of
Helms-Burton that allows for direct assistance to lawyers, independent
journalists and other anti-regime resources.

  ``There is a chance for a new administration to make a mark,'' he said.

Expressing an opinion held by many Republicans, he said that policies of the
Reagan and Bush administrations helped bring about the collapse of the
Soviet Union. ``Here is its outpost,'' he added, ``and a chance for it to go
away too.''

Former U.S. Interests Section chief in Havana, Wayne Smith, put it this way:
``I would imagine that U.S. policy toward Cuba across-the-board will become
more severe.''

An advocate of strategic engagement to create change in the Castro system,
he characterized coming Cuba policy as a payoff to Cuban Americans in South
Florida for Bush's November election. ``I think momentum toward engagement
and easing the embargo is gone for a time, despite the majority wishes,''
Smith said, citing farm interests and big businesses as well as some
religious groups that seek more active engagement with Castro's Cuba.

John Kavulich of the U.S.-Cuba Trade and Economic Council likewise predicted
an early administration slowdown in the Treasury Department's issuing of
licenses and permits for travel and business deals in Cuba, while the State
Department and Treasury await signals from the White House.

``Bureaucrats want to cover themselves,'' he said, adding that there was a
similar licensing backlog between the last Bush and Clinton administrations.