Weekend of decision for Venezuela

["nello margiotta" <nellomargiotta55 at virgilio.it>]

Analysis  By Robert Plummer
BBC News Online Latin America analyst
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/3247126.stm

Both sides in Venezuela's bitter political stalemate have staked out their
positions at the outset of the 96-hour signature-gathering marathon that
could decide the country's future.

Opponents of Mr Chavez have until Monday to sign up
President Hugo Chavez is adamant that there is no way the opposition can
legitimately sign up the 20% of the electorate that they need to trigger a
referendum on his term in office.
If they do manage it, he predicts that they will face "a historic defeat" in
the resulting vote.
But opposition leaders are equally confident that they can and will get 2.4
million people out of the 12 million registered voters to declare their
support for a poll that could force Mr Chavez out of office.
The head of the Fedecameras business leaders' association, Albis Munoz,
talks of healing the wounds of Venezuelan society and says the country is
tired of "lies and broken promises".
Landslide
Five years ago, the mood was very different as Venezuelans prepared for the
presidential election that would see Mr Chavez awarded his first democratic
mandate.
The world looked on warily as the ex-paratrooper who had inspired two coup
attempts in 1992 won a landslide victory, campaigning as an outsider
fighting the corruption of Venezuela's political establishment.
On that day, 6 December 1998, Mr Chavez won 56% of the vote in the biggest
margin of victory for 40 years.
 It's likely that Chavez will lose, lick his wounds and then come back in
2006

Professor George Philip, LSE
The optimism was maintained as Mr Chavez seized his chance to re-shape the
country's political system by re-drafting the constitution.
He replaced the old Congress with a single-chamber National Assembly and
concentrated more political power in the hands of his Movement of the Fifth
Republic (MVR) party.
He duly won re-election for a six-year term under the new system in July
2000.
But during the first half of that term, the president's following in the
country waned dramatically as he neglected the looming problems of the
country's economy.
Failed strike
Observers say Mr Chavez's support now hovers around the 30% mark - enough to
make it tough for his opponents to force him out, but not enough to put his
leadership beyond dispute.
That explains why the opposition has fought so tenaciously, yet failed so
signally, to oust Mr Chavez from the presidency.

Mr Chavez maintains support among poor people in Venezuela
First there was the failed coup attempt against him in April last year, then
the debilitating two-month general strike that fizzled out earlier this
year.
Latin American expert Professor George Philip, of the London School of
Economics, believes that this time they may have more of a chance.
"The government will do all it can to control the process and all kinds of
technical objections will be made, but in the end, I think it more likely
than not that there will be a vote," he told the BBC.
"However, it's likely that Chavez will lose, lick his wounds and then come
back in 2006," he added.
"The opposition is a loose coalition of forces, and in power they would find
it very difficult to unite."
Social programmes
The bleak prospects for Venezuela's battered economy are a major reason for
the decline in support for the president.
Oil production never fully recovered after the general strike, yet
three-fifths of government revenue comes from oil.
But while the middle classes have turned against Mr Chavez, many of the
have-nots are still firmly on his side.
Venezuela's poor have benefited from the president's social programmes and
are convinced that the opposition would abolish them.
Feelings on both sides are running very high, and Mr Chavez's supporters
have already staged their own rival signature-gathering campaign in a bid to
remove 38 opposition politicians from the National Assembly.
With no clear alternative political figure to Mr Chavez on offer, the
damaging polarisation of Venezuelan society could well continue even after
his removal, with unpredictable results.