State of the World 2001

["~ FABIOCCHI ~" <fabiocchi@infinito.it>]

STATE OF THE WORLD REPORT 2001
From: www.worldwatch.org (Release 13 January 2001)

From the thinning of the Arctic sea ice to the invasion of the
mosquito-borne West Nile virus, State of the World 2001 shows how the
economic boom of the last decade has damaged natural systems. The
increasingly visible evidence of environmental deterioration is only the tip
of a much more dangerous problem: the growing inequities in wealth and
income between countries within countries, inequities that will generate
enormous social unrest and pressure for change.

The authors argue that to solve the earth's environmental problems, we must
simultaneously address the problems of the world's poor peoples. State of
the World 2001 demonstrates that there are ways to move rapidly to improve
the environment and meet the material needs of all 6 billion members of the
human family. More than 10 million people have already benefited from small
loans from micro-credit programs like those pioneered by the Grameen Bank in
Bangladesh and BancoSol in Bolivia. And farmers in developing countries are
converting to organic agriculture to grow organic foods for export to
industrial countries.


GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT REACHES DANGEROUS CROSSROADS

Global environmental trends have reached a dangerous crossroads as the new
century begins, according to State of the World 2001, which was released
today by the Worldwatch Institute, a Washington-based research organization.
Signs of accelerated ecological decline have coincided with a loss of
political momentum on environmental issues, as evidenced by the recent
breakdown of global climate talks. This failure calls into question whether
the world will be able to turn these trends around before the economy
suffers irreversible damage.
"Governments squandered a historic opportunity to reverse environmental
decline during the prosperity of the 1990s," said Christopher Flavin,
President of the Institute and co-author of the report. "If in the current
climate of political and economic uncertainty, political leaders were to
roll back environmental laws or fail to complete key international
agreements, decades of progress could unravel."

New scientific evidence indicates that many global ecosystems are reaching
dangerous thresholds that raise the stakes for policymakers. The Arctic ice
cap has already thinned by 42 percent, and 27 percent of the world's coral
reefs have been lost, suggesting that some of the planet's key ecological
systems are in decline, say the Institute's researchers. Environmental
degradation is also leading to more severe natural disasters, which have
cost the world $608 billion over the last decade-as much as in the previous
four decades combined.
With many life support systems at risk of long-term damage, the choice
before today's political leaders is historic, even evolutionary, in nature:
whether to move forward rapidly to build a sustainable economy or to risk
allowing the expansion in human numbers, the increase in greenhouse gas
emissions, and the loss of natural systems to undermine the economy.
Unless fossil fuel use slows dramatically, the Earth's temperature could
rise to as high as 6 degrees above the 1990 level by 2100, according to the
latest climate models. Such an increase could lead to acute water shortages,
declining food production, and the proliferation of deadly diseases such as
malaria and dengue fever.

One sign of ecological decline described in this year's State of the World
is the risk of extinction that hangs over dozens of species of frogs and
other amphibians around the globe, due to pressures that range from
deforestation to ozone depletion. Co-author Ashley Mattoon describes
amphibians as "an important bioindicator-a sort of barometer of Earth's
health-more sensitive to environmental stress than other organisms."

Environmental decline is also exacting a toll on people. Even after a decade
of declining poverty in many nations, 1.2 billion people lack access to
clean water and hundreds of millions breathe unhealthy air. And poor people
in countries such as the Philippines and Mexico are pushed to destroy
forests and coral reefs in a desperate effort to raise living standards.
"Environmental degradation is worsening many natural disasters," said
co-author Janet Abramovitz. "In 1998-1999 alone, over 120,000 people were
killed and millions were displaced, mainly poor people in regions such as
India and Latin America."

Population growth has led people to settle in flood-prone valleys and
unstable hillsides, where deforestation and climate change have increased
their vulnerability to disasters such as Hurricane Mitch, which produced
economic losses of $8.5 billion in Central America in 1998-equal to the
combined GNPs of Honduras and Nicaragua.
"Mobilizing the worldwide response needed to bring destructive environmental
trends under control is a daunting task," said coauthor Gary Gardner. "But
people have surmounted great challenges before, from the abolition of
slavery in the 19th century, to the enfranchisement of women in the early
twentieth. Change can move quickly from impossible to inevitable."
Some early signs of progress have emerged in the past year:
In December, negotiators from 122 countries agreed to a historic legally
binding treaty that will severely restrict 12 persistent organic pollutants.

Iceland launched a pioneering effort to harness its geothermal and
hydropower to produce hydrogen, which will be used to fuel its automobiles
and fishing boats-an effort that is attracting investments from major oil
and car companies.

Organic farming, which avoids the use of synthetic fertilizers and
pesticides, has surged to a worldwide annual market of $22 billion-and may
get a further boost from strict organic farming standards issued by the U.S.
government in December.
Industry is one key to environmental progress. Last year, Ford Motor Company
Chairman, William Ford, questioned the long-term future of both the internal
combustion engine and the personal automobile, as his company stepped up its
efforts to develop new transportation technologies. At the same time, three
oil companies announced that they are moving "beyond petroleum" to a broader
portfolio of energy investments.
With oil, natural gas, and electricity prices all rising simultaneously
during the past year, the world has had a timely reminder that
over-dependence on geographically concentrated fossil fuels is a recipe for
economic instability. In many regions, renewable energy is now the most
economical and inflation-proof energy source available, and can be installed
much faster than the three-year minimum for a natural gas-fired power plant.

Co-authors Hilary French and Lisa Mastny note that failure to enforce many
existing international environmental agreements is hampering progress on
many fronts. State of the World 2001 calls for stronger enforcement of
treaties, and for increased North-South cooperation, particularly among the
environmentally and economically influential E9 countries: China, India, the
United States, Indonesia, Brazil, Russia, Japan, South Africa, and the
European Union. "Globalization must go beyond commercial relationships to
embrace strengthened political and civil-society ties between diverse
nations if we are to avoid a shared catastrophe," according to the report.

One example of the potential influence of the E9 countries is the effort to
slow climate change. These nine nations account for nearly three-quarters of
global greenhouse gas emissions. A collective commitment by the E9 to new
energy systems could have a dramatic impact on energy markets and reduce the
rate of global warming.
"The prospect of a new U.S. President entering office has raised questions
about whether the United States will choose to be a leader or an impediment
to global environmental progress in the decade ahead," said Flavin. "The
U.S. has the world's largest economy and its environmental impact is second
to none, so the signal it sends is crucial."

Amid the December 1999 breakdown in global trade talks and the collapse of
climate negotiations a year later, it is clear that the world is still
searching for consensus on how to forge an environmentally sustainable
economy. If the U.S. retreats to a more defensive view of global
environmental threats, it would create a leadership vacuum. International
negotiators are worried by the anti-environmental rhetoric of the Bush
campaign, but hopeful that once in office, the new administration will
follow through on the climate treaty and other policies that were launched
by the earlier Bush administration a decade ago.
"The question now is one of leadership," Flavin said. "Will the United
States help lead the world to a sustainable economy in the twenty-first
century-as it led the way through global crises in the last century? Or will
it be left to other countries to show the way to a sustainable economy in
the new millennium?"


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Fabio Quattrocchi mailto:FABIOCCHI@supereva.it
ACT NOW! http://WWW.ECOSOLIDARITY.COM
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