The real goal of Ariel Sharon

["jonatan Peled" <peled_j@maabarot.org.il>]

The real goal of Ariel Sharon

Jonatan Peled

30 March 2002



Real targets of a politician never can be recognized by his declared
positions or talks. Rather they can be concluded from his practice and real
actions. Concerning Ariel Sharon, we have to notice, that main attention of
the media is turned toward his declarations - much less toward the internal
logic of his policy in practice. People ask if does Sharon have a clear
policy that he means to realise? An end that he leads us toward it? Does he
indeed have a strategy?

To find an answer to these questions, let's see what has been done in
reality under his leadership.



1 - From the very moment that the offices and headquarters of the
Palestinian Security Organizations became the main target of Israeli
retaliations - or just aerial attacks - and the same time the P.A. was
demanded for decisive struggle against "terrorists", the contradiction
between these two factors became obvious: If you want the P.A. to fight
against "terrorists", you can't smash its executive organs. If you smash
them, under a somewhat vague claim of "punishment" but the same time keep
on demanding - under threat of ultimatum - to arrest every "terrorist" who
fights against Israel, this seeming contradiction can have only one
interpretation: You present to the P.A. a demand that can make sense, but
actually you care to prevent the means to accomplishment it (even if they
were ready to). On this way you can justify continuous destruction
("punishment"Ö) of the P.A. and its executive organs.



2 - Along the last year several times the sides came - under international
pressure - to cease fire agreement. Time after time when level of violence
started to diminish, Israeli assault on well targeted local military or
political leaders brought an outburst of Palestinian terror to the streets
of Israel. As this policy of the Sharon government turned out to be rather
insistent, hard to believe that it was incidental. Rather can be concluded,
that Sharon - just like the Hamas on the Palestinian side - never really
was interested in reducing the level of violence, on the contrary: he did
everything possible to increase the height of the flames. Why? We shall see
later on.



3 - The closure and siege that are put on all the Palestinian population
since more than one year, can't stop terror actions of suicide bombers
inside Israel. This opinion was openly declared by many Israeli military
and security service commanders. On the other hand they are very efficient
in preventing from the P.A. governmental and executive organs to function.
So maybe this is their main purpose?



4 - Obvious conclusion from the above mentioned policy (preventing
functioning of the Palestinian administration and smashing infrastructures
of its executive organs) can be only one: the undeclared but very clear
policy of the Israeli government, headed by Ariel Sharon has been since its
establishment - escalation of violence toward a short term target:
disintegration of the Palestinian Authority.

Toward the end of March this policy seemed to reach most of its goals.



5 - Similar logic led the brutal invasion of the Israeli army into
Palestinian towns and refugee camps: the Palestinian security forces
contain some 40.000 "policemen" that actually use as the regular army of
the P.A.

Up to now these units didn't take part in fighting against Israel, although
some of them joined political paramilitary organizations ( belonging to the
Fatah, Hamas, Popular front and the Islamic Jihad ) as individuals. Sharon
and the Israeli military command understand that regular army meets great
difficulties in fighting against guerilla, so they tried to drag the
Palestinian regular forces into direct struggle, in which the Israeli
army's military superiority could be expressed and last remnants of the
Palestinian executive forces would be eliminated.

At least in first round of the fighting this policy failed: the
Palestinians refused to play the role that Sharon meant to give them - they
abandoned the towns and camps and didn't confront the Israeli military
machine. Instead they escalated the terror attacks against Israeli civilian
population.

These days the Israeli army renewed its invasion on the Palestinian
civilian population - and on the little that was left of the Palestinian
Authority. They believe, that "what couldn't be achieved by power - will be
achieved by more power"Ö Hard to prevent the feeling, that this is Sharon
Government's response to a

comprehensive peace proposal that has been presented by all the Arab world
a couple of days before.



6 - If elimination of the P.A. will be completed (something that seems
almost sure), we have to ask ourselves and our government: now - Quo Vadis?
Where do we go? Do Sharon and his partners mean indeed to strengthen their
grasp in the (re)Occupied Territories, with its Palestinian population and
to establish "de facto" the "Grand Eretz Yisrael" - the Great Israel on a
land populated by 60% Jews and 40% Palestinians, a land in which the
Palestinians will be majority within the next decade?



Hard to believe. There are rather distinct signs, that Sharon and his ultra
- rightist partner mean to "solve" this dilemma by what is called in the
Israeli political jargon "Transfer" - expelling the Palestinian population,
all or at least great part of it to East side of the Jordan river - into
the Kingdom of Jordan. In the International terminology this is called -
"ethnic cleansing".



Transfer?

1 - When Sharon invaded Lebanon in 1982, his far reaching goal was to
"reorganize" the Middle East.

This grand Plan never was concealed by him, on the contrary: in a lecture
held in the Military Academy for High Commanders in February 1982 he
presented it in detail to an audience of high rank officers. The plan was
called - "Operation Pines". Part of the plan was establishment of a
Palestinian state on account of Kingdom of Jordan, deportation of the
Palestinian refugees from South Lebanon to North Jordan and to "encourage"
emigration of the Palestinian population from the "West Bank" and "Gaza
Strip" to this newly established Palestinian State. On this way meant
Sharon to give the Palestinians a sovereign state - and to accomplish the
dream of "Great Israel".



2 - Sharon used all Governmental positions during the last 20 years in
which he was appointed, for systematical creation of facts all over the
West Bank (and to some extent in the Gaza strip) to prevent any possibility
of a viable Palestinian sovereignty. All along this period he spread Jewish
settlements among the Palestinian towns and villages, in a well-planned
way, to split up the Palestinian territories in order to prevent any
continuity between the slices. At the present, the number of settlers and
deployment of settlements may bring to such situation.



3 - Sharon's conclusion from failure of his megalomaniac plan in the
Lebanon war was - as it seems - that such a far reaching program can be
achieved only if supported by an overwhelming majority of the Jewish public
in Israel. This make the "Unity Government" so important for him. He
understands that only on this way can he promote his strategic plan:
expelling - all or most - of the Palestinian people East of Jordan river.



Is it possible in practice?

All of us have deep inhibitions to admit a scenario, when its consequences
can be so horrible. Most of us prefer to say - "here this never can
happen"Ö"The world will stop it"Öetc. etc. If we accept the possibility of
such a forecast, moral consequence is that we shall have to do somethingto
prevent it - otherwise we accomplice the crime. Fine, to do, but - what??

Most of us can't face such a feeling of guilt, so we prefer to deny or to
repress that is actually so clearÖ

Well - history of the last 100 years teach us - every horror ispossible!



Now - let's see some facts:

1 - In time of national crisis, when individuals lose their feeling of
personal security, without seeing any hope for a way out - people are ready
to most lunatic acts, including handling over their fate to madmen that
promise simple solutions to their fears and their loss of security. Must be
blind not to see that the Israeli society is now on the verge of such an
existential crisis. Loss of personal security as resulted from Palestinian
terror attacks aimed to Israeli civilians, economic crisis, record
unemployment - all these make the majority of Israeli Jews ripe to accept
messianic leadership and lunatic policy.



2 - "Transfer" became a legitimate issue in the Israeli public discourse.
In public polls held on first days of March, 46% of the Israeli Jewish
population supported expelling of the Palestinian people. 31% supported
expelling the Israeli Arab population as wellÖ I doubt if many of this mass
thought over, what it meant from moral aspect, from the aspect of possible
number of victims - Jewish and Palestinian, from aspect of the future of
Israel, from aspect of our status among the nations - and from aspect of
our chance to integrate peacefully, in foreseeable future, into the region
we live in. They just don't want anymore to see Arabs around them, and if
someone promises to accomplish this - they are all but happy to follow him.



3 - Sharon's policy is directed toward increasing the despair among the
Palestinian people: closure on every town and village, preventing from the
population almost every mobility, even to neighbour towns or villages,
disintegration of civil and social services, smashing the economy and
creating a level of 60% unemployment produce more and more people who are
ready to blow up themselves - just for despair, hatred and revenge. If your
purpose is to expel them - this is the right way.



Inside Israel despair, inflamed by mass media is growing as well; people
are afraid to go to shopping, to markets, to pubs or to parties.
Palestinian suicide bombers may reach them everywhere. Economy is
shrinking, the middle-class and lower middle-class slip down, level of
unemployment crossed the 10%, in some peripheral towns it is over 14%,
scores of shops, factories bankrupt every day. Racism and support in ideas
of "transfer" are growing fast. This is an excellent background to create
national agreement around a policy of expelling the Palestinian people.



Is this possible? Just so?

a - Expelling some 3 million people technically is possible. Width of the
West Bank is about 80 km. On feet it can be crossed in two days. Pressure,
threats, massive demolition of houses, some limited massacres definitely
can bring the Palestinian population - all or at least most of it, to find
itself within one week on East bank of the Jordan river.

b - Such a plan can be realised only when proper local and international
circumstances exist. For example, if the U.S. will be busy in Iraq, the
same time Israel escalates its attack on the Palestinian population, the
reaction will send masses of suicide bombers to the streets of Israel, this
will be followed by popular movement among the terrified Jewish population
in demand of expelling all the Palestinians - let's add to this growing
tension, maybe limited war on the Lebanese border, perhaps unrest among the
Arab population inside Israel - not too difficult to draw a scenario in
which mass expelling will be possible.

c - Examples of disasters on similar scale can be found all over the world
along the last decade: Bosnia, Kosovo, Rwanda, the Kurdish People, Chechnia
etc. International intervention was always hesitant, mostly came too late.
I have no reason to suppose that here this will be different. Even if U.N.,
The U.S. or E.U. would mean to intervene, technically this can't be done in
less than 3 - 4 weeks, That time the West Bank - and maybe the Gaza strip
too, will be empty of Palestinians.



Will the Israeli Left do nothing ?

a - No. We draw a scenario, in which Emergency regulations will be
activated, civil rights will be - at least partly - suspended and what will
be the most important: policy of "transfer" will enjoy mass support among
the Israeli Jewish population.

b - Even these days, the Israeli Left (rather say - Peace Camp) hardly
exist as politically meaningful factor. There are some small groups and
individuals, that try to manage desperate struggle against the nationalist
and racist spirit - which many times can be called Fascism. It makes sense
that a few hundred or even few thousand of them will try to stop the
apparatus of Transfer. So what? Up to now there are several thousand
Palestinians in jail and in detention camps - in the first Intifada there
were much more - I'm sure that they will find room for a few hundred - or
thousand - "Leftists" as well.



Conclusions:

a - The above described scenario is not a deterministic one. Although I
have no doubt about the far reaching goal of Ariel Sharon and the extreme
right wing among the Israeli Jewish public, different local and
international forces may have impact on efforts to prevent its
accomplishment. First of all, the Peace People in Israel have to be aware
of Sharon's target and not to escape to dreams of convenient doubts and
illusions. The awakening can be too late and too horrible.

b - We have to struggle against the devastating slogans of "national
unity", "we must stand united" etc. Their real meaning is - don't oppose
the way on which we are led toward expelling our neighbour People,
destruction of our democracy and endangering the future existence of our
country.

c - In this context, there is an enormous importance to refusal of solders
to serve in the Palestinian territories. Only open split inside the Army
can stop the lunatic plans of Sharon. The military leadership is very much
aware of public atmosphere - especially inside the Army, above all among
the reserve soldiers. Refusal of several thousand reservists to take part
in this game can arise strong opposition among the chief commanders of the
Israeli Army, to Sharon's plans.

d - Mobilization of those parts among the Jewish people abroad, who
understand that supporting Israel doesn't mean to get along with every
madness of its Government, rather they understand what is the real interest
of Israel: not messianic fantasy, no some more land, but creation of a safe
and prosperous place for the Jewish people. This can be reached only if our
neighbours also will enjoy safety and prosperity. As simple as this.

e - The most important mean in short run to prevent deterioration is
international pressure, even intervention, before the worst will happen.
Every effort to mobilize external intervention into the Israeli -
Palestinian conflict that is escalating toward regional disaster has
enormous importance.



And if in spite of all this will happen - don't say "I didn't know"Ö.



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