Fw: Russian military experts on Iraq War progress -- as of 03-03-26

["Nello Margiotta" <animarg at tin.it>]

>
> War in Iraq - fighting the people
>
> March 26, 2003
>
> www.iraqwar.ru
>
>
> The IRAQWAR.RU analytical center was created recently by a group of
> journalists and military experts from Russia to provide accurate and
> up-to-date news and analysis of the war against Iraq. The following is
> the English translation of the IRAQWAR.RU report based on the Russian
> military intelligence reports.
>
>
>
> March 26, 2003, 1230hrs MSK (GMT +3), Moscow - As of the morning March
> 26 fierce battles have resumed in Iraq along the entire front. As was
> previously expected the sand storm has halted the advance of the
> coalition forces. Additionally, the coalition troops were in serious
> need of rest, resupply and reinforcement.
>
> For much of the day unfavorable weather paralyzed combat activities of
> one of the main attack groups of the coalition - the 101st Airborne
> Division, which was forced to completely curtail all of its combat
> operations. Combat readiness of this division is of strategic importance
> to the entire coalition force primarily due to the fact that the
> division operates 290 helicopters of various types, including the 72
> Apache attack helicopters. The 101st Airborne Division along with the
> 82nd Airborne Division and the 3rd Infantry Division (Mechanized) forms
> the backbone of the XVIII Airborne Corps - the main strike force of the
> coalition.
>
> In essence, the 101st Airborne Division provides suppression of the
> enemy while simultaneously conducting aerial reconnaissance and
> suppression of any newly-discovered enemy forces. It maintain constant
> contact with the enemy and contains the enemy until the main forces
> arrive.
>
> Currently the coalition's main forces are conducting combat operations
> along the approaches to the towns of Karabela and An-Najaf.
>
> During the past 24 hours the coalition units in these areas sustained 4
> killed and up to 10 wounded. All indications are that one coalition
> special operations helicopter was lost and no communication with the
> helicopter could be established. The faith of its crew and the troops it
> carried is still being investigated. Another two coalition helicopters
> made emergency landings in areas controlled by friendly forces. Aircraft
> engines were found to be extremely susceptible to the effects of sand.
>
> As was determined by our [GRU] intelligence even before the start of
> combat operations, the primary goal of the coalition command was an
> energetic advance across the desert along the right bank of the
> Euphrates river, reaching the central Iraq with a further thrust toward
> Baghdad through Karabela. Another strategic attack was to go around
> Basra through An-Nasiriya toward Al-Ammara followed by a full isolation
> of the southern [Iraqi] forces, effectively splitting Iraq in half.
>
> The first part of the plan - a march across the desert toward Karabela -
> was achieved, albeit with serious delays. The second part of the plan in
> essence has failed. Up to this moment the coalition troops were unable
> to punch through the Iraqi defenses near An-Nasiriya and to force the
> Iraqis toward Al-Ammara, which would have allowed the coalition to clear
> the way to Baghdad along the strategically important Mesopotamian river
> valley with Tigris and Euphrates covering the flanks of the advancing
> forces. So far only a few coalition units were able to get to the left
> bank of the Euphrates, where they are trying to widen their staging
> areas.
>
> Additionally, the prolonged fighting near An-Nasiriya allowed the Iraqis
> to withdraw most of their forces from Basra region and to avoid being
> surrounded.
>
> Currently the coalition forces are trying to get across the river near
> An-Najaf and Karabela, where, all indications are, heavy combat will
> continue during the next two days.
>
> Harsh criticism from the top US military leadership and pressure from
> Washington forced the coalition command to resort to more energetic
> actions. In addition to that the shock of the first days of war among
> the coalition troops, when they expected an easy trek across Iraq but
> encountered stiff resistance, is now wearing off. They are now being
> "absorbed" into the war. Now the coalition actions are becoming more
> coherent and adequate. The coalition command is gradually taking the
> initiative away from the Iraqis, which is in part due to the reliance of
> the Iraqi command on inflexible defensive tactics.
>
> Now the main tactical move of the US troops is to use their aerial and
> ground reconnaissance forces to test the Iraqi defenses, to open them up
> and, without entering direct close combat, to deliver maximum damage
> using artillery and ground attack aircraft. The coalition has finally
> stopped pointlessly moving around in convoys, as was characteristic of
> the first three days of the ground war.
>
> The tactics allowed for increased combat effectiveness and considerably
> increased losses of the Iraqi side. Due to such attacks by the coalition
> during the previous night and today's early morning the Iraqis have lost
> 250 troops killed and up to 500 wounded. Up to 10 Iraqi tanks were
> destroyed and up to three Iraqi artillery batteries were suppressed.
>
> However, despite of the increased combat effectiveness, the coalition
> forces have so far failed to capture a single sizable town in Iraq. Only
> by the end of the sixth day the British marine infantry was able to
> establish tentative control over the tiny town of Umm Qasr. During the
> hours of darkness all movement around the town is stopped and the
> occupying troops withdraw to defensive positions. Constant exchanges of
> fire take place throughout the town. Out of more than 1,500-strong local
> garrison the British managed to capture only 150 Iraqis. The rest has
> either withdrew toward Basra or changed into civilian clothes and
> resorted to partisan actions.
>
> Near Basra the British forces in essence are laying a Middle Ages-style
> siege of a city with the population of two million. Artillery fire has
> destroyed most of the city's life-supporting infrastructure and
> artillery is used continuously against the positions of the defending
> units. The main goal of the British is two maintain a strict blockade of
> Basra. Their command is confident that the situation in the city can be
> destabilized and lack of food, electricity and water will prompt the
> local population to cause the surrender of the defending forces.
> Analysts point out that capture of Basra is viewed by the coalition
> command as being exceptionally important and as a model for the future
> "bloodless" takeover of Baghdad.
>
> So far, however, this approach does not work and the city's garrison is
> actively defending its territory. Just during the past night at least
> three British soldiers were killed and eight more were wounded in the
> exchange of fire [near Basra].
>
> It is difficult not to not to notice the extremely overstretched
> frontline of the coalition. This frontline is stretching toward Baghdad
> through An-Najaf and Karabela and its right flank goes all the way along
> the Euphrates and is completely exposed. All main supply and
> communication lines of the coalition are going through unprotected
> desert. Already the supply routes are stretching for more than 350
> kilometers and are used to deliver 800 tonnes of fuel and up to 1,000
> tonnes of ammunition, food and other supplies daily to the advancing
> forces.
>
> If the Iraqis deliver a decisive strike at the base of this front, the
> coalition will find itself in a very difficult situation, with its main
> forces, cutoff from the resupply units, losing their combat readiness
> and mobility and falling an easy pray to the Iraqis.
>
> It is possible that the Americans are relying on the power of their
> aviation that should prevent any such developments. It is also possible
> that this kind of self confidence may be very dangerous.
>
> Massive numbers of disabled combat vehicles and other equipment becomes
> a strategic problem for the coalition. Already, radio intercepts
> indicate, all available repair units have been deployed to the front.
> Over 60% of all available spare parts have been already used and
> emergency additional supplies are being requested.
>
> The sand is literally "eating up" the equipment. Sand has a particularly
> serious effect on electronics and transmissions of combat vehicles.
> Already more than 40 tanks and up to 69 armored personnel carriers have
> been disabled due to damaged engines; more than 150 armored vehicles
> have lost the use of their heat-seeking targeting sights and night
> vision equipment. Fine dust gets into all openings and clogs up all
> moving parts.
>
> The coalition command has effectively acknowledged its defeat in the
> information war with the strikes against the television center in
> Baghdad and now further strikes should be expected against television
> and ground satellite transmitters. The coalition is attempting to leave
> the Iraqis without information in order to demoralize them.
>
> The extreme length of the resupply routes and the actions of the Iraqi
> reconnaissance units have created a new problem: the coalition command
> is forced to admit that it has no information about the conditions on
> the roads. Currently, as intercepted radio communications show, the
> coalition command is trying to establish the whereabouts of more than
> 500 of its troops that fell behind their units, departed with resupply
> convoys or were carrying out individual assignments. So far it was not
> possible to establish how many of these troops are dead, captured or
> have successfully reached other units.
>
>
>
>
> (source: iraqwar.ru, 03-26-03, translated by Venik)
>
>
> Copyright © Venik's Aviation, 1994-2003
>
>
>
>
>
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