Fw: Imperialists predict success in Venezuela coup in the next few days

["Nello Margiotta" <animarg@tin.it>]

----- Original Message ----- 
From: "grok" <grok@sprint.ca>
 Subject: Latest....
 Date: 10 Oct 2002 10:30:29 -0700
  Time Running Out for Chavez to Counter Coup Threat
 9 October 2002 
 
 Venezuela likely will reach critical mass within the next 24 hours. With
 STRATFOR sources calling a military coup imminent and an Oct. 10 protest
 march in Caracas expected to attract up to 1 million government
 opponents, President Hugo Chavez has only hours left in which to take
 pre-emptive action against his foes.
 If Chavez does nothing in the next 24 hours to dismantle the planned
 coup and stop a
 <http://www.stratfor.com/images/latinamerica/map/Venezuela_protest_map.g
 if protest march that he personally claims is part of an effort to
 launch an overthrow of his government, it could mean one of two things:
 Either Chavez is confident that he has sufficient military firepower and
 political control to defeat his opponents and is only waiting for them
 to act before crushing them, or he is paralyzed politically and has lost
 control of the National Armed Forces (FAN).
 
 Chavez and senior officials in his government have been claiming for the
 past week that the situation is under control. However, STRATFOR sources
 with direct knowledge of the coup preparations insist that Chavez does
 not control the military, and they are confident the plan to remove him
 will succeed.
 
 Nonetheless, these sources also think violence between Chavez supporters
 and opponents within the military is very likely, and they predict that
 both sides will attempt to selectively neutralize each other's key
 leaders and commanders within the FAN.
 
 The government already has deployed throughout Caracas more than 1,000
 soldiers from the Bolivar and Ayala battalions, which are based at Fort
 Tiuna and commanded by hardcore Chavez loyalists. Several hundred
 National Guard soldiers from the Fifth Regional Command in Caracas,
 which also is commanded by officers loyal to Chavez, have reinforced the
 soldiers. 
 
 There also have been confirmed movements of some armored vehicles from
 garrisons in Valencia to Maracay, which is closer to Caracas, and
 several colonels and lieutenant colonels have been relieved of their
 command in the last 24 hours because Chavez fears they would rebel
 against him, sources in military intelligence (DIM) say.
 
 However, it is not clear that all of the soldiers and National Guard
 troops deployed in Caracas are as loyal to Chavez as their commanders.
 DIM sources told STRATFOR on Oct. 9 that the soldiers or guardsmen
 currently deployed in Caracas probably would not obey their officers if
 ordered to fire at anti-Chavez protesters, but the sources also
 cautioned that it is possible some soldiers could panic and open fire if
 provoked by angry crowds.
 
 The planned coup -- and the regime's efforts to counter it -- are
 gaining momentum on the eve of what may be the largest political protest
 march in Venezuelan history. 
 
 For the past month, the Chavez regime and its supporters have been
 conducting an escalating campaign of harassment and intimidation against
 political opposition leaders, union workers and business owners,
 according to news reports and STRATFOR sources in Venezuela. 
 
 For instance, political opposition leaders have been deluged with
 anonymous telephone calls threatening their lives, and public-sector
 union workers have been threatened with dismissal if they march against
 Chavez Oct. 10. Also, dozens of business owners have been warned by
 telephone that if they shut down to protest Chavez, their offices and
 factories will be looted and burned.
 
 Since Oct. 5, Chavez also has personally ordered a series of
 high-profile raids by the Interior Justice Ministry's political police
 (DISIP) and DIM on the homes of suspected coup plotters. The president
 subsequently claimed the raids had uncovered "proof" of a conspiracy to
 topple him in a coup, but no one has been arrested and the evidence
 Chavez cited appears to have consisted of videos of past protest marches
 and anti-Chavez pamphlets calling for his resignation, according to news
 reports.
 
 Moreover, instead of suppressing dissent against the regime, these
 actions have infuriated many Venezuelans and increased popular
 enthusiasm for the Oct. 10 protest march, according to news reports from
 Caracas over the past week.
 
 Chavez may still try to stop the march by decreeing what Venezuela's
 constitution calls a "state of exception," which is basically a state of
 siege under which civil and political liberties are suspended and the
 government can legally move to round up alleged coup plotters. 
 
 However, DIM sources told STRATFOR Oct. 9 that senior FAN officials are
 concerned that declaring a state of exception could aggravate the
 political crisis even more and trigger bloody confrontations between
 opposing military units.