Fw: U.S. rightwing prepares to subvert growing Venezuelan Revolution

["Nello Margiotta" <animarg@tin.it>]

Is the "Cubanization'' of Venezuela Underway?

Summary

Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez is signaling that a crackdown
against his critics is imminent. He seems increasingly concerned
that his popular support will drop. And so the president is
turning to Cuba: relying on Cuban advisers, setting up a
presidential intelligence service and creating new political
organizations. Chavez will probably succeed in consolidating
power.

Analysis

Since returning to Caracas from a 21-day tour of Russia and Asia,
Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez has signaled that a crackdown on
critics is imminent and he has sharpened his rhetoric.

During a rally June 9, the president warned leading bankers,
industrialists and news media owners that they would soon be
arrested on tax evasion charges and would have to forfeit
personal and corporate assets. The next day Chavez announced the
immediate expulsion of foreigners critical of his government.

The formerly populist president is now making a bid for absolute
power. During his tenure, high oil prices had allowed him to
remain popular with the majority of the public even though he
imposed controls on the country's constitutional and legislative
systems and the power of the political elite.

Labor unrest, poverty, rampant crime and government turmoil,
however, have disenchanted many citizens who once believed that
Chavez, a fiery orator and former paratrooper, could save
Venezuela. As he faces the prospect of losing popularity, Chavez
is turning to Cuba for support. But Chavez knows U.S. President
George W. Bush will not move to stem, or even slow, Venezuela's
march away from democracy as long as Venezuela does not interrupt
its oil shipments to the U.S. and as long as Chavez does not
interfere with Plan Colombia.

Chavez is now relying on Cuban assistance in intelligence,
security and political matters. Caracas dailies El Nacional and
El Universal reported last week that Chavez has created a new
intelligence service, with headquarters at the Miraflores
presidential palace, that answers directly to him. Cuban military
advisers and intelligence experts reportedly are helping Chavez
create this service to keep tabs on his growing political
opposition.

Retired Adm. Rafael Huizi, a leader of the Institutional Military
Front, a group of retired military brass who oppose Chavez,
charged last week that the "Cubanization of Venezuela" is
underway.

The Chavez government denies the presence of Cuban military
advisers and intelligence operatives. But the Bush administration
reportedly has quietly suspended longtime intelligence-sharing
contacts between Washington and the Venezuelan Interior and
Justice Ministry's political police.

Moreover, soon after Chavez returned from his foreign tour, Peter
Romero, U.S. assistant secretary of state for the western
hemisphere, told the Miami Herald that Chavez "has the right to
travel where he wishes and say what he wishes, but what he says
will have consequences in terms of U.S. perceptions of Chavez."

Also, Chavez has personally organized a new grassroots political
group reporting directly to him. Chavez announced June 10 the
creation of "Bolivarian Circles," with branches in neighborhoods,
companies, hospitals, schools and universities. Its mission, he
said, is "to defend the Bolivarian revolution against the
counter-revolution."

Critics in Venezuela fear the main activity of these
organizations will be clandestine surveillance to identify
critics and opponents. The Revolutionary Bolivarian Movement-200
has been rebuilding its national membership since last March and
reportedly is signing up new recruits for concealed handgun
permits.

The government is motivated by a worsening economic situation.
Private investment has virtually dried up. Since Chavez became
president in early 1999 more than $15 billion in private capital
has fled the country, including $8 billion last year.

Oil prices are staying moderately high for Venezuela - more than
$22 a barrel - and the economy will grow about 3 percent in 2001
thanks to higher oil revenues. But inflation is edging upward,
and the official unemployment rate has stayed above 14 percent
for more than two years. More than 45 percent of Venezuelan
households are poor, according to the United Nations, while the
country's human development index at the end of 2000 had
regressed to 1960s levels.

In the midst of this slowdown, there are signs Chavez's cult of
personality is flagging. His promises of a better economy rest on
high oil prices and the ability of his government to manage the
country's resources efficiently and effectively.

While the president is popular with more than 60 percent of
Venezuelans, Chavez's job approval ratings have declined lately:
one recent poll found 80 percent of Venezuelans are dissatisfied
with government efforts to control crime. Pro-Chavez rallies at
the presidential palace draw a few thousand participants today
while a year ago, tens of thousands attended. Venezuelans are
apparently growing impatient with the burdens of personal
economic hardship.

Chavez's presidency is also hitting a historic mid-term slump.
The popularity of every democratically elected president since
Romulo Betancourt in the late 1950s has dropped like a stone
midway through the five-year term. The only exception was Jaime
Lusinchi in the 1980s who bankrupted the country but left office
as the most popular president in Venezuela's democratic history.
Chavez has now been in power for two-and-a-half years.

As a result, the president appears increasingly focused on
grabbing absolute power that would allow him to be president up
to 14 years, the amount allowed by his tenure under the recently
revised constitution. Chavez is tightening his grip to ensure he
does not lose control if oil prices drop sharply, plunging the
economy into recession and erasing his popularity.

Few institutions have enough power to stop Chavez, and the two
that do are unlikely to block him. The military is one of the few
potent domestic institutions. But military officers are not
likely to oppose the president because the military is one of the
main beneficiaries of the Chavez regime.

Romero, the U.S. government official, cautioned that change and
reform in Venezuela "must be kept within the parameters of the
law and constitution of Venezuela, and within universally
accepted standards of democracy."

However, meeting these political requirements will not be a
problem for Chavez. Venezuela's Supreme Court, the Supreme
Electoral Council and the National Assembly are virtual legal
rubber stamps for his whims.