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Council On Hemispheric Affairs
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Monitoring
Political, Economic and Diplomatic Issues Affecting the Western Hemisphere
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Memorandum to the Press 04.78
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Word Count: 2200
Wednesday, 27 October
2004
John Kerry Attracting More Cuban Voters
• A new poll published by the National
Democrat Network (NDN) suggests that President George W. Bush’s support among Florida's right-wing Cuban-Americans is significantly eroding.
• Senator John Kerry has sought to
attract more Cuban-American voters by toughening his language against Castro
and attacking Bush on the highly unpopular travel ban
and cap on remittances that his administration implemented in July.
• Kerry is hoping to capitalize on
recent trends suggesting that the Cuban-American base in Florida is gradually experiencing an ideological realignment
towards the Democratic Party.
• The Democratic candidate’s “Statement
of Principles on Cuba” illustrates a telling divide between him and his
opponent on issues important to Little Havana, and suggests that Kerry would lift the family travel
ban and remittances cap upon taking office.
A poll published in September by the National
Democrat Network (NDN), a Washington-Based 527 political organization, suggests
that the Cuban-American vote in Florida will not be as slanted towards George W. Bush as it was
four years ago. As a result, both President Bush and Senator John Kerry are
scrambling to energize support among Cuban-American voters in the crucial swing
state. Bush, who received 82 percent of the Cuban-American vote in Florida in 2000 (a state which he won by a paltry 537 votes), is
losing his stranglehold on the state’s Cuban-American base. The NDN poll shows
that, overall, 72 percent of Cuban-American voters favor Bush, 19 percent back
Kerry and 9 percent are still undecided in the run up to election. Underscoring
this fact, The Guardian of London reported on October 5 that Kerry is attracting
majorities of key Cuban-American groups. For example, 58 percent of U.S. born Cuban-Americans favor Kerry over Bush, and
immigrants who arrived in Miami after the Mariel boat lift of
1980 favor Kerry by 11 percentage points. The data from the NDN poll suggests
the Senator could succeed in attracting a significant number of Florida’s Cuban-Americans to the Democratic column on November
2. This has accelerated efforts by both campaigns to court Cuban voters, and
has even led John Kerry to reach out to hard-line anti-Castro voters who are
discouraged by the misguided pandering of the current president.
Kerry toughens his language on Castro
With new data indicating that the Democratic candidate
might be able to make significant gains amongst Cuban-Americans in the
election, some of Kerry’s advisors have recently encouraged the Senator to
toughen his language on Cuba. In a reaction to Secretary of State Colin Powell’s slip
that Castro poses a “diminished threat” to the United States since the end of the Cold War, Kerry offered a rebuttal
that could have been taken out of the Clinton playbook, attempting to move to Bush’s right in bashing Havana. Regarding Powell’s statement, Kerry charged back, “[it
is] shocking that the Bush administration is telling the world that Fidel
Castro no longer poses a problem for this hemisphere. Fidel Castro is a tyrant
who brutally oppresses the Cuban people […] Castro's Cuba is the last bastion of communism in our region and a
major obstacle to the triumph of democracy in this hemisphere.” This statement,
to date Kerry’s most extreme remark about Castro, was aimed at attracting
disgruntled hard-line Miamians disillusioned by Bush’s policy on Cuba. In response to Kerry’s rejoinder, Powell claimed that
his words were taken out of context, and told the Knight Ridder news organization on October 8, that Castro has
“never stopped being a problem” for the hemisphere. When asked about the
incident, a State Department official refused to speak about Powell’s comments,
telling COHA that the “Secretary’s comments stand for themselves.”
TO READ ENTIRE TEXT OF THIS PRESS RELEASE, CLICK HERE
This analysis was
prepared by David Oppenheim, COHA Research Associate.
October 27, 2004
The Council on Hemispheric
Affairs, founded in 1975, is an independent, non-profit, non-partisan,
tax-exempt research and information organization. It has been described on the
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and policy makers.” For more information, please see our web page at
www.coha.org; or contact our Washington offices by phone (202) 223-4975, fax
(202) 223-4979, or email coha at coha.org.