[Disarmo] Germany and the fighting in South Sudan - Fwd

[glry <glry at ngi.it>]

Inizio messaggio inoltrato:

> *Da: *German-Foreign-Policy <newsletter at german-foreign-policy.com
> <mailto:newsletter at german-foreign-policy.com>>
> *Oggetto: **Newsletter 2014/01/13 - The Impact of Geostrategists
> (Germany and the fighting in South Sudan)*
> *Data: *14 gennaio 2014 23:01:38 CET
>
> Newsletter 2014/01/13 - The Impact of Geostrategists
>
> BERLIN/JUBA (Own report) - Vicious combat has turned the Berlin
> supported national secessionist project, into a catastrophe in South
> Sudan. According to recent estimates, approximately 10,000 people have
> been killed in the military conflict since mid-December. Aimed at
> weakening Sudan, the German government had vigorously supported the
> secession of South Sudan - not only politically but also with concrete
> programs for "establishing a state." Sudan was considered to be among
> the more anti-western segments of the Arab world. Three-fourths of
> Sudan's oil reserves are located in South Sudan, which has already
> established close ties with the pro-western East African countries of
> Kenya and Uganda. The German government had promoted the
> geostrategically motivated secessionist project, even though observers
> had been warning against the renewal of violence in South Sudan.
> Already in the 1990s, rival forces had been engaged in brutal combat.
> Observers warned that this combat could resurge, once Juba decides
> over the distribution of national resources. And this is exactly what
> has happened.
>
> more
> http://www.german-foreign-policy.com/en/fulltext/58709

The Impact of Geostrategists

2014/01/13
BERLIN/JUBA

(Own report) - Vicious combat has turned the Berlin supported national
secessionist project, into a catastrophe in South Sudan. According to
recent estimates, approximately 10,000 people have been killed in the
military conflict since mid-December. Aimed at weakening Sudan, the
German government had vigorously supported the secession of South Sudan
- not only politically but also with concrete programs for "establishing
a state." Sudan was considered to be among the more anti-western
segments of the Arab world. Three-fourths of Sudan's oil reserves are
located in South Sudan, which has already established close ties with
the pro-western East African countries of Kenya and Uganda. The German
government had promoted the geostrategically motivated secessionist
project, even though observers had been warning against the renewal of
violence in South Sudan. Already in the 1990s, rival forces had been
engaged in brutal combat. Observers warned that this combat could
resurge, once Juba decides over the distribution of national resources.
And this is exactly what has happened.
10,000 Dead
According to recent estimates, approximately 10,000 people - possibly
even more - have already been killed in the armed conflict in South
Sudan.[1] The military conflict began December 15, following an alleged
attempted coup, led by former vice president Riek Machar, who had been
ousted in the summer 2013. The Juba regime arrested eleven senior
politicians of Machar's faction and engaged his militia militarily,
which retaliated fiercely. According to official reports, there are more
than 200,000 refugees, possibly many more. Refugees report that
civilians are arbitrarily killed and members of particular ethnic groups
targeted. In fact, both President Salva Kiir (Dinka) and his rival Riek
Machar (Nuer) are inciting animosity between their respective ethnic
groups. The conflict is escalating.
State Establishment
The South Sudanese conflict is also a result of German foreign policy,
given Berlin's years of support in helping to prepare secession of the
region and the consolidation thereafter. For example, Berlin had
undertaken measures to advise the South Sudanese in their legislative
and judicial matters along with the establishment of a South Sudanese
Constitution, carried out by the Max Planck Institute for Comparative
Public Law and International Law in Heidelberg, initially with
consultations back in 1998 and with intensity since 2002.[2] In 2002,
the CDU-affiliated Konrad Adenauer Foundation invited South Sudanese
separatists to Germany, to report to "interested circles" - such as the
Ministry of Foreign Affairs - "on their efforts" to "establish a well
regulated polity in South Sudan."[3] In 2007, the state-owned GIZ
development agency (at the time it was known as the GTZ) initiated a
"program to support state establishment" in South Sudan which included
the counseling of ministries and administrative organizations.[4]
Following additional measures, Berlin gave political backing to the
secession referendum in 2011, which formally sealed South Sudan's
secession. Since 2005, German troops have been stationed both in Sudan
and South Sudan; they were also expected to secure the consolidation of
South Sudan in the aftermath of the secession.
Warnings
Berlin, alongside Washington and London, had pressed ahead with the
secession despite warnings of grave consequences that critical observers
were issuing - warnings that are now proving to have been well founded.
For example, the process of establishing the borders between Sudan and
South Sudan have led to strong dissention and bloody conflicts - because
no agreement could be reached on whether the borders should prohibit
nomadic sectors of the population from entering their grazing grounds;
or because both sides were laying claim to the same oil fields.[5]
Perhaps even more serious, were the warnings that, once secession has
been accomplished, it could lead to acrimonious power struggles inside
South Sudan. This prognosis was based on the fact that during the civil
war against the north of the country, various rebel groups in southern
Sudan were already feuding among themselves, and, in some cases, these
feuds were fought out with even more brutality than the battles against
the Khartoum government forces. In 1991, the militias, led by Riek
Machar, split from the Sudan People's Liberation Army (SPLA) and began
to engage them in military combat. At the time, the rivals also resorted
to ethnic ties to overcome their adversaries. In 1991, Machar's militia
massacred several thousand Dinka in Bor. While Berlin was pressing ahead
with the secession of southern Sudan, observers were warning that these
power struggles could flair up again, as soon as the various factions of
the SPLA had divided up control over the national resources among
themselves. This is exactly what has now transpired.
Geostrategy
In spite of all warnings, the obstinate support for secession was aimed
at the establishment of an independent South Sudan - a region holding
approx. three-fourths of Sudan's oil deposits. With the south's
secession from the north, Khartoum was deprived not only of the control
over this gigantic region, but also over its resources. This is very
important, from the Western point of view, because Sudan was seen as one
of the Arab countries with a hostile tendency toward the West. Juba, on
the other hand, is seeking to link up with the East African Community
(EAC), a pro-Western international alliance.[6] South Sudan's secession
served to weaken - what the West sees as - an insubordinate government
and to incorporate the South Sudanese resources into the compliant EAC.
EAC member nations Kenya and Uganda have in fact developed predominating
economic influence in Juba and have begun linking South Sudan to their
international alliance. Thwarting China was the objective of initial
German plans for supporting the secession of South Sudan. Whereas in and
around 2005, German and other Western companies were preparing to engage
in Juba, the People's Republic of China had been closely cooperating
with Khartoum. In the meantime, Chinese economic influence in South
Sudan has clearly grown, particularly in the oil industry.
The Consequences
The geostrategic operations to split South Sudan away from the rest of
the country, in which Berlin has played a major role, has now, with the
current conflicts, developed into a catastrophe. Uganda has already
dispatched troops to South Sudan, to try to prevent the country from
skidding into total civil war. Ugandan fighter planes are said to have
bombed positions of Riek Machar's militias, who have announced
retaliatory measures, should Uganda - which has always loyally defended
pro-Western positions in Eastern Africa [7] - get involved. This would
widen the South Sudan conflict to another country and further
destabilize the already seriously instable East Africa [8] - another
example for the disastrous impact of Western geostrategists.
Other reports and background information on Germany's policy toward
Sudan/South Sudan can be found here: Smash and Rebuild
<http://www.german-foreign-policy.com/en/fulltext/56106>, An Instrument
of Western Power
<http://www.german-foreign-policy.com/en/fulltext/56175>, Establishing a
State <http://www.german-foreign-policy.com/en/fulltext/56194>, The
Train to Independence (II)
<http://www.german-foreign-policy.com/en/fulltext/56294>, The Benefit of
Secession
<http://www.german-foreign-policy.com/en/fulltext/57902>, English rather
than Arabic
<http://www.german-foreign-policy.com/en/fulltext/57951> and At the
Brink of War <http://www.german-foreign-policy.com/en/fulltext/58294>.
[1] New Estimate Sharply Raises Death Toll in South Sudan.
www.nytimes.com <http://www.nytimes.com> 09.01.2013.
[2] See also Establishing a State
<http://www.german-foreign-policy.com/en/fulltext/56194>.
[3] See also Heißer Frieden
<http://www.german-foreign-policy.com/de/fulltext/50201>.
[4] See also Nächstes Jahr ein neuer Staat
<http://www.german-foreign-policy.com/de/fulltext/57752>.
[5] See also At the Brink of War
<http://www.german-foreign-policy.com/en/fulltext/58294>.
[6] Members of the East African Community (EAC) are Tanzania, Kenya,
Uganda, Rwanda and Burundi. Regarding the EAC see also Die Macht der
Finanziers <http://www.german-foreign-policy.com/de/fulltext/58469>.
[7] See also The Prompters
<http://www.german-foreign-policy.com/en/fulltext/57935>.
[8] See also Interventionspolitik und Terror
<http://www.german-foreign-policy.com/de/fulltext/58695>.

__._,_.___

-- 
G. Jure Ellero glry at ngi.it
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