[Disarmo] Egypt from USA to Russia, China?

[glry <glry at ngi.it>]

Global Times January 1, 2014
Egypt knows it has other options in multipolar world
By Clifford A. Kiracofe (*)

Egypt's foreign policy is bound to change after the turmoil of the last
two years. Dissatisfaction with Washington and emerging multipolarity in
the international system influence decisions of top leaders around the
world. Egypt is no exception and the handwriting has been on the wall
for US-Egypt relations.
The bilateral relations were fixed during the Anwar Sadat and Hosni
Mubarak years as a result of the Camp David Accords in 1978 which led to
the Egypt-Israel Peace Treaty of 1979. The deal involved billions of
dollars in US aid to Israel and to Egypt. In return for the money, Egypt
was required to honor the peace treaty with Israel.
Critics at the time said US policy one-sidedly supported Israeli
interests in the deal which neutralized Egypt as a factor in the Middle
East.
Sadat's foreign policy dropped close relations with Russia in favor of
an alignment with the West. He based his policy on the premise that
relations with the West would lead to major improvements in the Egyptian
economy through foreign direct investment and trade relations and that
military aid would be forthcoming. But Egypt was thus alienated from the
Arab world and Sadat was later assassinated by an Islamist terrorist.
Mubarak, under US pressure, continued the Sadat policy until the time he
left office.
In the present post-Mubarak phase, Egypt is adjusting its international
relations. But this is no surprise. In fact, a reorientation in Egyptian
foreign policy in the direction of Moscow and Beijing has been expected
by some US experts for over a decade.
When I visited Egypt in 2002, this option for Egypt was clearly in the
air. I was in meetings with the then foreign minister as well as in
meetings with former Egyptian ambassadors and officials in which
relations with Washington and the regional situation were discussed. I
also met with the rector of the prestigious and influential Al-Azhar
University. To balance my impressions, I met with US embassy officials
including our then ambassador.
My take-away from the visit was that the US had lost credibility and
influence not only owing to Washington's handling of the Palestine issue
but also owing to the handling of relations with Egypt. Washington's
inflexible tilt to Israel increasingly alienated Egyptian elites and,
significantly, the masses.
Discussion of the visit and my assessment of the developing situation
over the next several years with friends and former colleagues in
government confirmed my earlier views.
One former colleague, a veteran of the State Department and National
Security Council, told me that it was probable that Egypt would drift
from the US in the near or medium term. My friend explained that he had
recently met with Egyptian cabinet officials and senior military
officers for frank discussions. Because he had been on excellent terms
with these officials and officers for many years, the conversations took
place in a friendly atmosphere. This was a decade ago. The Egyptian side
emphasized to my friend that Egypt did not need US money and did not
need US weapons because there were other options in the world. Russia,
eastern Europe, and China could furnish weapons as well as various forms
of economic assistance through trade and investment.
The Obama administration considerably worsened US-Egypt relations.
The White House mistakenly continued the George W. Bush's policy of
grouping Israel with the Gulf states in a coalition against Iran. But
instead of just taking Egypt for granted as Bush had, the Obama
administration launched yet another US-backed "Color Revolution" upon
the development of the Arab Spring.
Now that Egypt is recovering from the Obama destabilization and regime
change policy, it is not difficult to understand that Cairo seeks other
options. It is also not surprising that Obama's vaunted June 2009 Cairo
speech lost all meaning when actions did not match words.
Friends of Egypt should wish its people well and hope that the
development of relations with Russia and China can serve Egyptian
interests as well as regional peace.

http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/835282.shtml#.UsSzP_RDumU


The author is an educator and former senior professional staff member of
the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations. opinion at globaltimes.com.cn

--------

(*)
Dr. Clifford A. Kiracofe, Jr. is a former Senior Professional Staff
Member of the U.S. Senate Committee on Foreign Relations.  He served as
an Instructor (civilian) at the U.S. Marine Corps Command and Staff
College, Quantico, VA. and was a Research Associate at the Institute for
Foreign Policy Analysis, Inc., Cambridge, MA.
http://www.vmi.edu/fswebs.aspx?tid=37359&id=37361




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